This analysis explores gentrification across London.
We look at 53 low-income neighbourhoods with the most extreme changes in average incomes in the last decade to ask how gentrification is changing populations and what this might mean for the future of London.
The 53 areas we've identified as 'gentrified' (2012 and 2020)
Note: Our aim with this work is to better understand how gentrification is changing populations. It isn't a full picture of where and how deeply gentrification is happening across London. The analysis focuses on the 53 neighbourhoods that had the lowest 20% of income levels in 2012. Other areas may have experienced gentrification earlier or started with relatively higher incomes. This means the true number of gentrified neighbourhoods is likely to be much higher than covered here. You can read our methodology here.
Key findings
- We’ve identified 53 neighbourhoods in London that more than a decade ago housed those on the lowest incomes, which we are classing as having gentrified
- These areas saw their average incomes increase by 11% to £32,100 between 2012 and 2020, after inflation is taken into account
- By contrast in the rest of London average incomes stayed almost the same at £37,300 in 2012 and £37,700 in 2020 (+1%)
- In 10 of these neighbourhoods incomes increased by more than 20% - likely to be too large an increase to be from individuals increasing their incomes alone
- These neighbourhoods have seen their populations change significantly – with a remarkable drop in their Black population and fewer families with children
- They have also seen the proportion of residents living in social housing drop. And without London’s social housing stock increasing, this may push families into the expensive private market, or to leave the city
- In the same time period, the average house became 2.5x more expensive in these 53 areas - compared to 2x more expensive in the rest of London. This suggests that soaring housing costs may be leading to population changes in the city
What do we mean by gentrification?
Gentrification is when the character of an area changes because wealthier people move in and existing residents are pushed out. It can lead to housing, services, shops and restaurants becoming unaffordable for many members of the local community. Even people born in an area, that may have never lived anywhere else in their lifetime, can be forced out. Gentrification can also disproportionately impact some members of the community more than others.
For this analysis, we are considering gentrification to be the influx of more affluent residents into lower income areas, leading to the displacement of the previous population. The analysis we have done aims to identify such places within the limitation of available data.
Why are we doing this analysis now?
For two years in a row, London’s poverty rate has fallen to the lowest on record. On the face of it, this could be good news. But with rent soaring and a once in a generation cost of living crisis, we thought something else was going on. And we suspected that low-income Londoners were being priced out and replaced by wealthier residents. This analysis is part of our work to understand what is happening to our city.
Where is being gentrified in London?
To identify parts of London where gentrification is likely taking place, we looked at how incomes have changed across neighbourhoods between 2012 and 2020. Through this, we identified 53 neighbourhoods we’ve classed as having been gentrified in this time period.
While average incomes in London’s neighbourhoods as a whole have barely nudged in this time period, these neighbourhoods have seen their average incomes rise by 11%. In some, the change has been even starker. For example, both in Tower Hamlets:
- Spitalfields (45% increase)
- Aldgate (29%)
You can see these 53 areas in the map at the top of the page. It shows that gentrification is likely taking place across the city. Tower Hamlets has an especially large number of 'gentrified' neighbourhoods - 12 of the 53. Brent, Southwark, Newham and Haringey also have large pockets.
For more information about how we identified these 53 neighbourhoods, including a full list of the neighbourhoods, read our methodology. Or read on for our analysis of how gentrification is changing these neighbourhoods, and what this means for the city.
How are populations changing in these areas?
Once we know where gentrification is likely taking place, we can look at how it’s impacting communities. We explored how populations have changed in those neighbourhoods compared with the rest of London, and also with other low-income neighbourhoods.
A remarkable drop in Black communities
Change in the distributions of minority ethnic groups for 'gentrified' areas and the rest of London (2012 and 2020)
Between 2012 and 2020, London’s Black community remained pretty much static. This is also true for the lowest income neighbourhoods in 2012. But for the 53 neighbourhoods we’ve looked at, there has been a drop in Black populations – by almost 2%. This equates to around 10,000 Black Londoners that we would see living in these 53 neighbourhoods, if the proportion had stayed the same.
At the same time, these areas have seen a smaller decrease in the White population than the rest of London.
Fewer families with children
Change in the distributions of household composition for 'gentrified' areas and the rest of London (2012 and 2020)
One of the biggest threats of gentrification is that it makes London so expensive families can no longer afford to raise children here.
In the 53 neighbourhoods we looked at, there has been a decrease in the number of single parent households. At the same time, there was an increase – by more than 2% - of couples without children.
And fewer children in general
Change in the distributions of age groups for 'gentrified' areas and the rest of London (2012 and 2020)
There’s also been a sharp drop in the number of children in these areas – a larger drop than in the rest of London. The number of 16-29 year olds also decreased, while the proportion of 30-49 year olds increased, despite decreasing in the rest of London.
This reflects a trend across London. Primary school applications in the capital are falling dramatically.
Change in primary school applications in London and neighbouring counties (2014/15 and 2024/25)
This is happening across the country – but in London it’s especially stark. Southwark and Enfield, two boroughs that featured in this analysis, have seen especially large decreases – in Southwark, there were 32% fewer primary school applications in 2024/25 than ten years earlier.
A huge drop in social housing tenants
Change in the distributions of housing tenures for 'gentrified' areas and the rest of London (2012 and 2020)
The proportion of households in these areas living in social rented council housing dropped by 5% - significantly more than in the rest of London.
More people in managerial positions
Change in the distributions of NS-SeC for 'gentrified' areas and the rest of London (2012 and 2020)
These areas have seen an increase both in people in ‘high managerial, administrative and professional occupations’ and ‘lower managerial, administrative and professional occupations’. At the same time, there have been drops in the proportion of students, and those in ‘semi-routine’ occupations.
What does this mean for London?
London has always been a city of extreme divides, and it has always felt that we may well see a time when only better off people can live in the city. This research shows the changes that we are seeing due to gentrification in many of London’s neighbourhoods. It highlights areas with decreasing Black communities, fewer children, and more people in professional occupations.
It also raises concerns about housing pressures in London. In the 53 areas we’ve identified as being gentrified, there has been a drop in the population living in social housing. This could be for a number of reasons – such as people using Right to Buy to buy their home. Another possible factor is Council estate ‘regeneration’ projects.
Our capital city is at a tipping point. The only way to turn the tide is a once-in-a-generation effort to invest in affordable and social housing. Without this, the diverse blend of communities that makes London so special will be lost. Homelessness levels will rise. One of the world’s most vibrant and diverse cities will be unrecognisably changed.
Case study: Woodberry Down & Manor House
Photo credit: Dave Hill (OnLondon)
One of the neighbourhoods where we have seen a large increase in incomes is Woodberry Down & Manor House in Hackney, home to the Woodberry Down estate. This estate is undergoing ‘one of Europe’s biggest single-site estate regeneration projects’, with more than 2,000 homes being demolished and replaced by 5,500 new ones.
So far 2,000 homes have been completed – 25% of which are social rented, and a majority of which are for the private market. Research from Public Interest Law Centre finds that when the regeneration is eventually completed in 2040, there will be 275 fewer social rented homes than they were in 1999. At the same time, the cost of private rents has soared in the area – from £1,546 for an average one-bed in 2021, to £2,600 in 2024.
This is just one neighbourhood in London, but with regeneration projects taking place across the capital – many in early stages – it raises questions about the impact this is having in London. And with 300,000 London households currently on the social housing waiting list, families being pushed out of their area by regeneration projects would place increased pressure on a limited social housing stock, and an expensive private rental market.
Acknowledgements: This research was carried out by WPI Economics on behalf of Trust for London. Special thanks go to Naoko Skiada, Senior Data Insights Analyst, and Guy Weir, Head of Data Insights.